Colorectal Cancer and Subsequent Diabetes Risk: A Population-based Cohort Study in Taiwan.

CONTEXT: The association between colorectal cancer (CRC) and new-onset diabetes mellitus remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between CRC and the risk of subsequent diabetes mellitus and to further investigate the impact of chemotherapy on diabetes mellitus risk in CRC. DESIGN: A nationwide cohort study. METHODS: Using the Taiwan Cancer Registry Database (2007-2018) linked with health databases, 86,268 patients with CRC and an equal propensity score-matched cohort from the general population were enrolled. Among them, 37,277 CRC patients from the Taiwan Cancer Registry (2007-2016) were analyzed for diabetes mellitus risk associated with chemotherapy. Chemotherapy exposure within 3 years of diagnosis was categorized as no chemotherapy, <90 days, 90-180 days, and >180 days. Differences in diabetes mellitus risk were assessed across these categories. RESULTS: Each group involved 86,268 participants after propensity score matching. The patients with CRC had a 14% higher risk of developing diabetes mellitus than the matched general population (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.20). The highest risk was observed within the first year after diagnosis followed by a sustained elevated risk. Long-term chemotherapy (>180 days within 3 years) was associated with a 60-70% increased risk of subsequent diabetes mellitus (HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.07-2.49). CONCLUSION: Patients with CRC are associated with an elevated risk of diabetes mellitus, and long-term chemotherapy, particularly involving capecitabine, increases diabetes mellitus risk. Thus, monitoring blood glucose levels is crucial for patients with CRC, especially during extended chemotherapy.

Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan. METHODS: Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected. RESULTS: Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

Relationship Between Subjective Questionnaires and Videofluoroscopy of Dysphagia Evaluation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of dysphagia is important for preventing aspiration pneumonia. Although videofluoroscopy is currently the primary diagnostic tool for dysphagia, access to this tool may be limited because of radiation exposure risk, high cost, and other factors. PURPOSE: In this study, a meta-analysis was used to determine the strength of the correlation between dysphagia detection outcomes obtained using subjective questionnaires and videofluoroscopy. METHODS: The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for original articles up to December 2022. Studies published in English that used cross-sectional designs to assess the correlation between subjective questionnaires and videofluoroscopy were considered eligible for inclusion. The search terms used included "dysphagia," "questionnaire," and "videofluoroscopy." Two reviewers critically appraised and extracted the correlation coefficient r values. In addition, a random-effects meta-analysis was conducted. The Q statistic was used to assess the heterogeneity among the included studies. Publication bias was checked using the funnel plot and Egger's tests. Multilevel analysis was used to determine sensitivity to consider within-study correlations. In addition, subgroup analyses were conducted based on type of questionnaire, head and neck cancer, and English-speaking regions. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included five studies and 856 patients using the Eating Assessment Tool-10 and one study and 27 patients using the Sydney Swallow Questionnaire. The results of the random-effects meta-analysis showed a moderate relationship between the subjective questionnaires and videofluoroscopy ( r = .35, 95% CI [0.20, 0.48]). Similar results were also obtained using multilevel analysis ( r = .34, 95% CI [0.25, 0.42]). No publication bias was found for any of the studies ( p = .88). In the subgroup analyses, a moderate relationship between Eating Assessment Tool-10 and videofluoroscopy ( r = .31, 95% CI [0.19, 0.42]) and an ultrahigh relationship between Sydney Swallow Questionnaire and video-fluoroscopy ( r = .74, 95% CI [0.50, 0.87]) were found. Furthermore, moderate associations were observed within each head and neck cancer and English-speaking regions subgroup. However, no significant differences were found between these two subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate the subjective questionnaires considered in this study share a moderate relationship with videofluoroscopy. Subjective questionnaires may be used as an auxiliary tool by nurses and homecare givers for the early assessment of dysphagia risk in patients.

Reduced burden of Arsenic-Related cancers after water mitigation in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence has demonstrated an association between arsenic in drinking water and increased cancer incidence. This population-based study investigates the impact of a tap water supply system installation in Blackfoot disease-endemic regions of Taiwan on cancer incidence. METHODS: By using the Taiwan Cancer Registry dataset, we enrolled patients aged 40-84 diagnosed with arsenic-related cancers, including hepatocellular carcinoma, small and squamous cell lung cancer, Bowen's disease, basal and squamous cell skin cancer, urothelial bladder cancer, and upper tract urothelial carcinoma between 1995 and 2019. Random-effects age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the cancer incidence data, and a stabilized kriging method was employed to interpolate incidence rates to more precise spatiotemporal units. RESULTS: The results showed that the age-standardized incidence rates of all six types of studied cancers were consistently higher in Blackfoot disease-endemic areas than those in other areas from 1995 to 2019. However, the gap in incidence rates between Blackfoot disease-endemic areas and the remaining regions began to narrow approximately after the 1960 birth cohort when the tap water supply system installation commenced. For small and squamous cell lung cancer, Bowen's disease, and urothelial bladder cancer, the excess incidence rates sharply declined to null for those born after the year of arsenic mitigation. For upper tract urothelial carcinoma, the excess incidence rates decreased more gradually for those born after the year of arsenic mitigation. For hepatocellular carcinoma and basal and squamous cell skin cancer, the excess incidence rates remained constant. Spatiotemporal clusters of high incidence rates were identified in the core townships of Blackfoot disease-endemic areas. These clusters began to dissipate mainly after the 1960 birth cohort. CONCLUSION: Arsenic mitigation from drinking water in Taiwan is associated with a reduced burden of small and squamous cell lung cancers, Bowen's disease, urothelial bladder cancer, and upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

Peri-onset non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use and organ failure in acute pancreatitis: A multicenter retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Organ failure (OF) of acute pancreatitis (AP) significantly contributes to AP-related mortality. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been associated with reduced complications of AP. AIMS: We aimed to investigate whether NSAIDs ameliorates SIRS and OF in patients with AP. METHODS: Eligible patients with AP were retrospectively identified in 4 hospitals between January 2015 and December 2018. Associations between peri-onset NSAIDs use (day -3 to day 3) and OF, persistent OF (POF), and SIRS within the first week were analyzed. Propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis and inverse probability of treatment-weighted (IPTW) analysis were used to estimate risk ratios. RESULTS: Among 1,528 patients with AP (97 [6.3%] with NSAIDs use), 242 (15.8%) developed organ failure, 89 (5.8%) progressed to POF, and 27 (1.8%) died within 3 months. PSM analysis showed no association between peri-onset NSAIDs and OF (risk ratio [RR], 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 2.15) and POF (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.21 to 2.98). IPTW analysis yielded similar results. Patients with and without peri-onset NSAIDs use were comparable with respect to OF, POF, and SIRS across subgroups defined by COX-2 selectivity and dose. CONCLUSION: Peri-onset NSAIDs use was not significantly associated with reduced OF.

The Risk of Cancer-Associated and Radiotherapy-Associated Cardiovascular Diseases among Patients with Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The cardio-related issues should be emphasized as the survival rates of breast cancer increased. We investigated the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) and stroke due to breast cancer or radiotherapy. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, breast cancer patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2016 were recruited from Taiwan Cancer Registry Database and were followed until the end of 2018 by linking with the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database. The general population was randomly selected from the whole population in 2007. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated to compare the risk of CAD and stroke between patients and the general population. Within the cohort, we included the patients diagnosed between 2011 and 2016. Cox proportional hazards model and subdistribution hazard function were used to investigate the associations of radiotherapy with the risk of CAD and stroke. RESULTS: Overall SIR of CAD was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78-0.86), while were 1.43 and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.30-1.55 and 1.00-1.16) 1 and 2 years after diagnosis, respectively. Overall SIR of stroke was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.60-0.67), the results were similar after considering the time since diagnosis. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for the associations of radiotherapy with CAD and stroke risk were 0.91 (95% [CI] = 0.76-1.09) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.68-1.04), respectively. The results were similar by using subdistribution hazard function. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of CAD was higher within the first 2 years of breast cancer diagnosis. We found no association between radiotherapy and the risk of CAD and stroke.

Diabetic severity and oncological outcomes of colorectal cancer following curative resection: A population-based cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Although diabetes is a poor prognostic factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), whether diabetes severity provides an additional predictive value for CRC prognosis remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate the prognostic differences after curative CRC resection among patients with different diabetic severities. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study analyzed data registered between 2007 and 2015 in the Cancer Registry Database, which is linked to the National Health Insurance Research Database and National Death Registry. Patients with CRC who underwent curative radical resection for stage I-III disease were evaluated, with their diabetic status subdivided into no diabetes, diabetes without complication, and diabetes with complications. Cox regressions were applied to determine the association between diabetes severity and CRC survival, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), time to recurrence, and cancer-specific survival (CSS). RESULTS: A total of 59,202 patients with CRC were included. Compared with the no diabetes group, the diabetes without complication group has insignificantly worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.09), DFS (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.12), and CSS (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.93-1.03), whereas those with complicated diabetes had a significantly higher risk of poor survival (OS: HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.78-1.92; DFS: HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.69-1.82; CSS: HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.33-1.49). Patients with CRC and diabetes also had a higher risk of recurrence than did those without diabetes. Sex and TNM staging were important effect modifiers. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CRC who undergo curative resection, the severity of the diabetes is inversely correlated with long-term outcomes, especially in women and patients in the earlier stages of CRC. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The prognostic impact of diabetes severity in colorectal cancer (CRC) is yet to be clarified. In this cohort study of 59,202 patients with CRC, compared with patients with CRC and without diabetes, those with uncomplicated diabetes had an insignificantly worse CRC survival, whereas those with complicated diabetes had a significantly higher risk of poor survival. Multidisciplinary medical care to prevent progression into diabetes with complications is needed to improve survival among patients with CRC and diabetes.

Investigating the risk of metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities among patients with parathyroid cancer: a nationwide representative cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine whether primary parathyroid cancer patients were associated with increased metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities in comparison to the general population. METHODS: We used the National Taiwan Cancer Registry Database to construct a cohort of patients with parathyroid cancer from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2019. We compared the incidence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, and heart failure with the general population matched based on a propensity score in a one-to-five fashion. RESULTS: A total of 72 parathyroid cancer patients and 360 matched general population (mean age: 55 years; 59% women) were included, with different exclusive numbers for each metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidity cohort. The number of cases based on a total of 2347.7 person-years of observation included 53 deaths, 29 hypertension, 9 diabetes, 13 hyperlipidemia, 10 atrial fibrillation, 18 coronary artery disease, and 13 heart failure. According to multivariate analysis, parathyroid cancer remained significantly associated with diabetes [hazard ratio (HR): 9.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.72-50.07], hyperlipidemia (HR: 5.86; 95% CI: 1.61-21.31), and heart failure (HR: 4.46; 95% CI: 1.18-16.84). Sub-distribution of competing mortality events and subgroup analysis showed robust evidence of metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities. This national cohort study demonstrated that adult parathyroid cancer patients had a significantly higher incidence of diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and heart failure than the general population. CONCLUSIONS: An increased risk of metabolic and cardiac comorbidities among parathyroid cancer patients required great caution.

Latency period of aristolochic acid-induced upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma.

Purpose: Aristolochic acid (AA) is a carcinogen in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). This study investigated the latency period between AA exposure and UTUC development. Materials and methods: This population-based cohort study was designed using record linkage of the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), Taiwan Cancer Registry Dataset, and cause-of-death data in Taiwan. Those aged 40-79 years were enrolled in this study. Patients who died or had renal insufficiency or UTUC before 2005 were excluded. The doses of AA exposure and rates of comorbidities between 2000 and 2005 were obtained. The Cox proportion hazard model was used to estimate the risk of UTUC between 2005 and 2016. In addition, the Cox model with time-varying coefficient of AA was used to measure the latency period of UTUC. Results: Of the 752,232 participants enrolled from the NHIRD, 520,871 (68.29%), 210,447 (27.59%), and 31,415 (4.12%) were exposed to cumulative AA doses of 0-1 mg, 1-150 mg, and >150 mg, respectively. A total of 1,147 (0.15%) patients were diagnosed with UTUC between 2005 and 2016. The latency periods of UTUC in middle-aged (40-59 years old) men with cumulative AA doses of 1-150 mg and middle-aged women with cumulative AA doses of 1-150 mg and >150 mg were 8, 9, and 7 years, respectively. Among the aged (60-79 years) individuals, no time-varying effect was observed, and the latency period could not be measured. Conclusion: A decreased risk of UTUC was observed after the ban on AA in Taiwan, especially in middle-aged women with moderate to high doses of AA exposure and men with moderate doses of AA exposure. The latency period of UTUC varies with age, the dose of AA exposure, and sex.

Urban-Rural Disparity in Birth Cohort Effects on Breast Cancer Incidence.

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women worldwide. Studies have reported minimal birth cohort effects on the incidence rates of breast cancer in Western countries but have reported notable birth cohort effects in some Asian countries. The risks of breast cancer may also vary within a country. In the present study, we abstracted female invasive breast cancer data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry for the period 1997-2016. We used the age-period-cohort model to compare birth cohort effects on breast cancer incidence rates between urban and rural regions in Taiwan. We identified a notable urban-rural disparity in birth cohort effects on breast cancer incidence rates in women in Taiwan. The incidence rates in the urban regions were higher than those in the rural regions across all cohorts. However, the incidence rates rose faster in the rural regions than in the urban regions across the cohorts. The risks of breast cancer observed for women born in 1992 were approximately 22 and 11 times than those observed for women born in 1917 in rural and urban regions, respectively. The observed gap in breast cancer incidence rates between the urban and rural regions gradually disappeared across the cohorts. Accordingly, we speculate that urbanization and westernization in Taiwan may be the drivers of female breast cancer incidence rates across birth cohorts.

Incidence trends and spatial distributions of lung adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in Taiwan.

Lung cancer is the second most common cancer in Taiwan. After Taiwan implemented the Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act in 1997, smoking rates declined. However, the incidence rates of lung cancer for both sexes are still increasing, possibly due to risk factors other than smoking. We used age-period-cohort analysis to examine the secular trends of lung cancer incidence rates by histological type in Taiwan. A stabilized kriging method was employed to map these lung cancer incidence rates. Lung adenocarcinoma incidence rates increased, but lung squamous cell carcinoma incidence rates decreased, for both the sexes in recent birth cohorts, particularly in women. In Taiwan, the hotspots of lung adenocarcinoma incidence rates were in the northern, northeastern, and western coastal areas; the incidence rates increased rapidly in the western and southern coastal regions and southern mountainous regions. The high incidence rates of lung squamous cell carcinoma in men were in the southwestern and northeastern coastal areas. The incidence rates rapidly increased in the central and southern coastal and mountainous regions. For both sexes in Taiwan, lung squamous cell carcinoma incidence rates declined from 1997 to 2017, but lung adenocarcinoma increased. The increased incidence rates of lung adenocarcinoma may be related to indoor and outdoor air pollution. Some areas in Taiwan have increasing lung cancer incidence rates, including the northwestern and southern coasts and mountains, and warrant particular attention.

A Stabilized Kriging Method for Mapping Disease Rates.

BACKGROUND: Mapping disease rates is an important aspect of epidemiological research because it helps inform public health policy. Disease maps are often drawn according to local administrative areas (LAAs), such as counties, cities, or towns. In LAAs with small populations, disease rates are unstable and are prone to appear extremely high or low. The empirical Bayes methods consider variance differences among different LAAs, thereby stabilizing the disease rates. The methods of kriging break the constraints of geopolitical boundaries and produce a smooth curved surface in the form of contour lines, but the methods lack the stabilizing effect of the empirical Bayes methods. METHODS: An easy-to-implement stabilized kriging method is proposed to map disease rates, which allows different errors in different LAAs. RESULTS: Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the stabilized kriging method had smaller symmetric mean absolute percentage error than three other types of methods (the original LAA-based method, empirical Bayes methods, and traditional kriging methods) in nearly all scenarios considered. Real-world data analysis of oral cancer incidence rates in men from Taiwan demonstrated that the age-standardized rates in the central mountainous sparsely-populated region of Taiwan were stabilized using our proposed method, with no more large differences in numerical values, whereas the rates in other populous regions were not over-smoothed. Additionally, the stabilized kriging map had improved resolution and helped locate several hot and cold spots in the incidence rates of oral cancer. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of the stabilized kriging method for mapping disease rates.

Risk of cardiovascular diseases in cancer patients: A nationwide representative cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: The associations with cancer and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) had inconsistent results. The study aimed to investigate the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) between populations with and without cancer. METHODS: Patients with common cancers in Taiwan were enrolled in the study between 2007 and 2018 using the Taiwan Cancer Registry. We focused on colorectal cancer, women's breast cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, oral cancer, prostate cancer, and thyroid cancers. The study endpoint was fatal and non-fatal CVD, which was defined as ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke according to the National Health Insurance Research Database. We compared the risk of CVD between patients with cancer and age- and sex-matched (1:1 ratio) participants who did not have cancer or CVD. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression analysis. To evaluate the chronological trend, we estimated the HRs and 95% CI yearly since the diagnosis. RESULTS: Among the 552,485 cancer patients (mean age, 60.6 years; women, 47.7%) during the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, 32,634 cases of fatal and non-fatal CVD were identified. Compared with that noted in the non-cancer population, the overall fully adjusted HR with 95% CI was 1.28 (1.25, 1.30) in the cancer population. The CVD risk was the highest in the first year, the adjusted HR with 95% CI was 2.31 (2.23, 2.40), and this risk decreased yearly. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cancer had a significantly higher risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD. The risk was the highest in the first year since diagnosis and decreased yearly.

Association between thyroid cancer and cardiovascular disease risk: a nationwide observation study.

Treatment with levothyroxine and radioiodine contribute alternative cardiovascular function in adults with thyroid cancer. The risks of long-term cardiovascular conditions among thyroid cancer patients is unknown. This study aimed to compare the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), ischemic stroke (IS), and atrial fibrillation (AF) among adults with thyroid cancer with that of the general population, especially when stratified by age (< 65 and ≥ 65 years old). This observational cohort study enrolled patients between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2016 with a follow-up until December 31, 2018. This study analyzed the data of Taiwanese thyroid cancer patients registered on the National Taiwan Cancer Registry Database, with CHD and IS. SIR models were used to evaluate the association between thyroid cancer and CHD, IS, AF, and cardiovascular disease outcome, stratified by age and sex. SIR analyses were also conducted for both sexes, age groups (< 65, ≥ 65 years), and different follow-up years. After excluding 128 individuals (< 20 years or ≥ 85 years old) and with missing index data, 4274 eligible thyroid cancer patients without CHD history, 4343 patients without IS history, and 4247 patients without AF history were included for analysis. During the median follow-up of 3.5 (1.2) years among thyroid cancer patients, the observed number of new CHD events was 70; IS, 30; and AF, 20, respectively. The SIR was significantly higher for CHD (SIR, 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.93) among thyroid cancer patients compared with the age- and sex-specific standardized population. However, the association between thyroid cancer and the risks of IS (SIR, 0.74; 95% CI 0.47-1), cardiovascular disease (SIR, 0.88; 95% CI 0.7-1.05), and atrial fibrillation (SIR, 0.74; 95% CI 0.42-1.06) were insignificant. Moreover, stratification by age < 65 or age ≥ 65 years old and by sex for CHD suggested that the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in the young may attenuate the CHD risk (SIR, 2.08; 95% CI 1.5-2.66), and the CVD risk was constant among both men (SIR, 1.63; 95% CI 1.03-2.24) and women (SIR, 1.53; 95% CI 1.06-1.99). The patients had persistent higher CHD risk for 5 years after cancer diagnosis. Thyroid cancer survivors have a substantial CHD risk, even at long-term follow-up, especially in those patients < 65 years old. Further research on the association between thyroid cancer and CHD risk is warranted.

A stabilized spatiotemporal kriging method for disease mapping and application to male oral cancer and female breast cancer in Taiwan.

Mapping spacetime disease rates can provide a more in-depth understanding of their distribution and trends. Traditional spatiotemporal kriging methods can break the constraints of geopolitical boundaries and time intervals. Still, disease rates in densely and sparsely populated areas are stabilized to the same degree, resulting in a map that is oversmoothed in some places but undersmoothed in others. The stabilized spatiotemporal kriging method proposed in this study overcomes this problem by allowing for nonconstant variances over space and time. A spatiotemporal map of the standardized incidence ratio for oral cancer in men in Taiwan between 1997 and 2017 reveals that the high-risk areas for oral cancer are in the midwestern and southeastern regions of Taiwan, spreading toward the center and north, with persistent cold spots in the northern and southwestern urban regions. However, the corresponding map for breast cancer in women in Taiwan reveals that the high-risk areas for breast cancer are concentrated in densely populated urban regions in the west. Spatiotemporal maps facilitate our understanding of disease risk dynamics. We recommend using the proposed stabilized spatiotemporal kriging method for mapping disease rates across space and time.

Association of Nationwide Hepatitis B Vaccination and Antiviral Therapy Programs With End-Stage Liver Disease Burden in Taiwan.

Importance: Chronic infections of hepatitis B and C viruses are the main causes of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) worldwide. The successful control of viral hepatitis is critical to reducing the burden of ESLD. Objective: To examine the association of 2 world-first nationwide neonatal hepatitis B vaccinations and national antiviral therapy programs implemented in Taiwan (in 1984 and 2003, respectively) with the burden of ESLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included children and adults aged 5 to 39 years from the National Cancer Registry Database and the National Death Registry Database between 1979 and 2018 in Taiwan. Individuals who died from chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or were diagnosed with HCC were included for analysis. Analyses were performed in January 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were measures of age, period, and cohort associations with CLD mortality and HCC incidence and mortality using an age-period-cohort analysis. Results: Among the 43 604 individuals (mean [SD] age, 33.3 [6.0] years; 37 755 men [86.6%]) with ESLD in the cohort, there were 17 904 CLD deaths, 11 504 HCC deaths, and 14 196 HCC incident events. There was a significant increase in all 3 disease burdens after age 20 years. From 2004 to 2018, CLD mortality decreased by 26% (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.70-0.82), HCC mortality decreased by 50% (aRR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.45-0.58), and HCC incidence decreased by 53% (aRR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.44-0.52). A sharply declining association by cohort was observed from the 1982 to 1986 birth cohort to the 2007 to 2011 birth cohort, during which CLD mortality decreased by 82% (aRR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.00-1.13), HCC mortality decreased by 63% (aRR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.09-0.68), and HCC incidence decreased by 80% (aRR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.00-0.48). The associations of age, period, and cohort were similar between male and female individuals and between urban and rural areas. The percentage of chronic hepatitis B infections in patients with HCC decreased from 83.3% (95% CI, 79.7%-86.5%) for those born from 1980 to 1984 to 55.6% (95% CI, 21.2%-86.3%) (from 2000 to 2004). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the national hepatitis B vaccination program and the antiviral therapy program jointly were associated with substantial reductions in the burden of ESLD in Taiwan.

Birth Cohort Effects in Breast Cancer Incidence: Global Patterns and Trends.

Breast cancer is the most common neoplasm in the world among women. The age-specific incidences and onset ages vary widely between Asian and Western countries/regions. Invasive breast cancer cases among women from 1997 to 2011 were abstracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the trends. The cohort effect was prominent in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Thailand, possibly related to the timing of westernization. The risk of breast cancer initially rose with the birth cohorts in Hong Kong and India (both former British colonies), peaked, and then declined in recent birth cohorts. Unlike other Asian countries/regions, virtually no birth cohort effect was identified in the Philippines (a Spanish colony in 1565 and the first Asian country to adopt Western cultural aspects). Moreover, an at-most negligible birth cohort effect was identified for all ethnic groups (including Asian immigrants) in the United States. This global study identified birth cohort effects in most Asian countries/regions but virtually no impact in Western countries/regions. The timing of westernization was associated with the birth cohort effect.

Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate has doubled in just 20 years, causing considerable concern to health professionals and the general public. This study used an ensemble of age-period-cohort models to estimate breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan from 1997 to 2016 and project trends up to 2035. The (truncated) world standard population (World Health Organization 2000) proportions (age groups: 25-29, 30-34, …, 80-84, and older than 85 years) were used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates. The age-standardized incidence rate from 1997 (60.33/100,000 population) to 2016 (128.20/100,000 population) increased rapidly. The projection is that the increase in the age-standardized incidence will subsequently slow and exhibit a plateau in 2031 (151.32/100,000 population). From 2026 to 2035, the age-specific incidence rates for women older than 55 years old (postmenopausal breast cancer) are projected to increase with larger percentage increments for older women. A future leveling of female breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan is anticipated. The majority of the patients with breast cancer in the future will be women aged 55 years and older. Education on lifestyle recommendations and mammography screening is required to reduce the burden of breast cancer. The results should have implications for other countries which are also confronted with the same public health problem of rapidly increasing breast cancer incidences.

Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan.

Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cancer burden is essential. We conducted an age-period-cohort analysis on the incidence of oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017 and extrapolated the trend to 2025. We found that the period trends for young adults aged between 25 and 44 have already peaked before 2017; the younger, the earlier, and then the trends declined. The cohort trends have peaked roughly at the 1972 birth cohort and then declined for all ages. Despite the increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate for oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017, we forecast a peak attained, an imminent decline after 2017, and a decrease of 8.4% in age-standardized incidence rate from 2017 to 2025. The findings of this study contribute to developing efficient and comprehensive strategies for oral cancer prevention and control.

Increased standardised incidence ratio of cardiovascular diseases among colorectal cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Evidence regarding the relationship between colorectal cancer and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is limited. Thus, in this study, we aimed to determine the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of CVDs in colorectal cancer patients in Taiwan. METHODS: A population-based cohort study enrolling the incident colorectal cancer population based on the Cancer Registry Database from 2007 to 2016 was conducted (n = 94,233, mean age: 62.4 years, 43.0% women). New cases of CVD, including coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke, through 31 December 2018 were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database and National Death Registry. Compared with the general population (n = 1,977,659, mean age: 44.3 years, 49.6% women), age- and sex-specific SIRs for CVDs were calculated by the time since diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 6852 cardiovascular events occurred in colorectal cancer patients during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. The SIR of CVD was highest in the first year after diagnosis (SIR: 1.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.50); however, this decreased to the same value as that of the general population in later years. Similar patterns were observed for the SIR of coronary heart disease. However, the SIR of ischemic stroke among colorectal cancer patients was low from the second year following cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal cancer patients are at an increased risk of developing CVD, especially coronary heart disease, during the first 3 years following colorectal cancer diagnosis.